The report, “The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036,” prepared for the AAMC, examines the projected physician workforce in the U.S. through 2036. Key findings include:
- Physician Shortages: By 2036, the U.S. is projected to face a shortage of 13,500 to 86,000 physicians, including 20,200 to 40,400 primary care physicians and significant shortfalls in surgical and other specialties. Some medical specialties may experience surpluses.
- Health Equity: Addressing health care utilization inequities would require 117,100 to 202,800 additional physicians as of 2021, highlighting disparities in access to care.
- COVID-19 Impacts: The pandemic has increased physician demand by about 1% due to acute and long-COVID care needs. It has also exacerbated physician burnout, potentially leading to earlier retirements.
- Population Growth and Aging: The U.S. population is projected to grow by 8.4% by 2036, with a 34.1% increase in those aged 65 and older, driving demand for specialties serving older adults.
- Workforce Aging: Over one-third of active physicians are nearing retirement age, which could further strain supply.
- Graduate Medical Education (GME): Projections assume a 1% annual growth in GME capacity. Without continued investment, shortages could be more severe, resembling earlier projections of up to 124,000 physicians by 2034.
- Health Care Utilization Equity Scenarios: If underserved populations had equitable access to care, physician demand would rise significantly, emphasizing the need to address systemic inequities.
- Advanced Practice Providers: The growing supply of nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician associates (PAs) is helping mitigate shortages but cannot fully address the gaps.
The report underscores the need for sustained investment in physician training, addressing health inequities, and managing the long-term impacts of COVID-19 to meet future health care demands.